1. Proceedings
  2. I3M
  3. 2018
  4. IMAACA
  5. 10.46354/i3m.2018.imaaca.009

Study of supply chain vulnerabilities based on cognitive engineering and ARIMA formal models

  • Leila Sakli  , 
  • Jean Marc Mercantini ,
  •  Jean Claude Hennet
  • Aix-Marseille Université Laboratoire des Sciences de l’Information et des Systèmes (UMR CNRS n° 7296) Domaine universitaire de Saint Jérôme Avenue Escadrille Normandie-Niemen 13397 Marseille cedex 20
Cite as
Sakli L., Mercantini J.-M., Hennet J.-C. (2018). Study of supply chain vulnerabilities based on cognitive engineering and ARIMA formal models. Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Integrated Modeling and Analysis in Applied Control and Automation (IMAACA 2018), pp. 73-82. DOI: https://doi.org/10.46354/i3m.2018.imaaca.009

Abstract

This research concerns the formulation of models and methods for supply chains risk analysis. An ontological approach using the KOD method (Knowledge Oriented Design) has been implemented to clearly identify relationships between the concepts of supply chain, risk, vulnerability and disturbances (critical scenarios). As a result, conceptual models of supply chains facing risk situations and critical scenarios are proposed. From the resulting conceptual models and mathematical models proposed in the literature, a multi-stage supply chain model using ARIMA models incorporating the randomness of the demand has been elaborated. In order to adapt this model to scenario criticality, constraints on orders and inventories have been taken into account. Under critical disturbances on information flows (demand) and physical flows (quality of the product supplied), constraints can be reached and supply chain behaviours can evolve toward critical dynamics or even become unstable. Supply chain vulnerabilities has been assessed and discussed.

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