1. Proceedings
  2. I3M
  3. 2020
  4. SESDE
  5. 10.46354/i3m.2020.sesde.003

A model for adjusting dietary estimates of greenhouse gases towards OECD food estimates

  • a Susan J. Lincke , 
  • b Joy Wolf 
  • a,b University of Wisconsin-Parkside, 900 Wood Rd, Kenosha, WI, 53141, USA
Cite as
Lincke S.J., Wolf J. (2020). A model for adjusting dietary estimates of greenhouse gases towards OECD food estimates. Proceedings of the 8th International Workshop on Simulation for Energy, Sustainable Development & Environment (SESDE 2020), pp. 19-25. DOI: https://doi.org/10.46354/i3m.2020.sesde.003

Abstract

Research has shown that the meat-based portion of diets has a most serious effect related to greenhouse gases. Many studies rely on portion estimations, assuming a ‘high-level’ of daily meat consumption of 100 g and an average consumption of 2000 kcal. This meat estimate is less than one McDonalds quarter pounder. The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) provides annual estimates of national meat consumption, where six nations average rank above the 200 g mark. We focus on EU and US, since there are both OECD data and dietary studies available for these higher-meat consumption nations. The OECD meat consumption for EU is at 189 g and US at 270 g daily. We prorate studies’ research to assume the meat portion is equal to the OECD statistics and also prorate to a higher dietary consumption level of 2400 kcal. We accomplish this by providing a mathematical model and example results for 8 studies. These are analyzed for reasonableness by observing the greenhouse gases per kcal for meat and non-meat portions of diet.  Our results provide an upper bound of the effects of meat consumption, not including fish, as well as to contrast existing studies using similar metrics. We found that both kcal estimates and meat consumption are strong drivers of GHG levels, and research should not be complacent with lower food estimates.

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